After Advani who?

Yes I know that everyone is asking who comes after Vajpayee, but I don’t think that is in any doubt. It will be Advani. Yes I know that BJP has a strong second line of leadership and there is no reason in theory why it shouldn’t be someone from there and yada yada yada, but that is because your theory isn’t looking at the mechanics of the succession. Briefly, there are two possibilities.

  1. Vajpayee dies.
    If he is dead then the BJP will realise that he can’t be the Prime Minister So they will look for a new one. But it is Indian tradition to treat the death of a leader as a huge crisis and the end of the era and of course that won’t be the time to engage in a highly divisive search for a sucessor among the second generation. So it will be Advani by consensus. Of course, if they had searched for a leader before Vajpayee’s death, there wouldn’t have been such a huge crisis in the first place, but we are talking of us Indians here. Thousands of years back Yudhishtira figured out that the most amazing thing in the world was that though everyone is destined for death, we behave as if we are immortal. Now the most amazing thing is that though we figured out the truth thousands of years back we don’t do anything about it.

  2. Vajpayee lives.
    If he lives then there are two possibilites.

    1. He is incapacitated.
      Remember that he is suffering from Parkinson’s. It is an irreversible and degenerative disease. As it is, he forgets things. That can easily be put down to his age, but as time goes by it will get worse, he will be less and less able to function, and sometime we will notice. By the time we notice, a seamless transition would have taken place. Advani would have already become the de facto Prime Minister and it will be just a question of announcing his “retirement” and swearing in Advani to complete the formality.
    2. He genuinely retires.
      Yes I know, and cows can fly over the moon. But let’s just consider that possibility for argument’s sake. What he should do is announce his retirement perhaps 3 years into his term, tell the party to elect a new leader and go to the polls under him (or her, not to be unfair to Sushma Swaraj) Of course, apart from the massive wailing from the party that will ensue, do you think they will elect a second generation leader like Pramod Mahajan or.. say Arun Jaitely? And then do you think other senior ministers like Jaswant Singh, Yashwant Sinha and Ram Naik will serve under him? Look I know that those three are no-hopers as far as Premiership is concerned. But they won’t serve under a junior guy either. So it will be Advani again.

That’s why the real question is, after Advani who?

10 thoughts on “After Advani who?

  1. They will definitely find someone. And opposition will bring no-confidence move and project their own candidate as an alternative.They will make sure that the other person remains a puppet in their hand, as they did with Indira. But dumb doll proved not so dumb at all. 🙂

  2. Wow! Such an incisive and insightful post! It had such a rigorous analysis that even a mathematician would have been proud of. It threw light on so many new aspects that I wish there are more such posts…:)

  3. “Jaswant Singh, Yashwant Sinha and Ram Naik… I know that those three are no-hopers as far as Premiership is concerned”

    I am not so sure about Jaswant Singh. IMO, he has a lot of things going for him. He’s accepted in the global arena (esp. the US)more than the others. He has no ‘fundamentalist’ leanings a la Advani. He might not have too much popular support, but that is eminently curable. His performance as Finance Minister has been generally considered good. He seems to be the dark horse in the race. Advani, for all his deputy Prime ministership, seems unacceptable as a Prime Ministerial Candidate to the parties in the NDA, because of the reason given above

  4. Nah.
    Have you heard him speak? He is really boring. And I speak as someone who likes him and can understand finance.

    Secondly the RSS doesn’t like him. I know the RSS doesn’t like Vajpayee too, but Vajpayee being popular can give them the finger. Jaswant can’t. (Actually the RSS doesn’t like anyone in the cabinet except Joshi, but that’s a different matter.)

    And as for Advani’s fundamentalist leanings, get real. Those for whom it matters (the Muslims) don’t vote for the BJP anyway. He runs the Home Ministry. If he wanted to go on the rampage, he could have done it right now, the way Joshi the lunatic has done. It is difficult for me to believe that he is restrained because Vajpayee has restrained him.
    It must be because a) He is not as extremist as he is made out to be or b) He has compromised because of the compulsions of coalition politics. If he becomes PM, not much will change, except that he won’t get the Vajpayee-charisma votes. But then there is no one who will.
    In any case, the allies are with the BJP because of their compulsions, not because they like its ideology. Unless the BJP goes completely overboard (like seize the Ayodhya site and hand it over to the VHP, bring out an ordinance implementing a UCC) they won’t desert the NDA.

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  6. I do not belive in BJP’s Hindutva , or what the BJP terms as ‘nationalist hindutva’ , in fact (it is like ‘either you are a hindu or not a nationalist at all’ this ideology is so deleterious , that it may partition again , between socialists and hardliners). While agreeing to the fact that Mr.Advanis statement is atrocious and is utterly ‘Anti-national’. and I belive this came in fact to what BJP thinks as “appeasing muslim”. It sounds really ridiculos to me , that BJP always links indians muslims here with pakistan and its politics (Congress dosnt do this, you see). Also , if BJP looses elections, Muslims are responsible. I dnt wish to write more , many have already pointed out what Hinduism and Hindu’s lacks. (hint: corruption/casteism in our country which riddled all, its source..from where??? why not in america, japan , china to such a great extent , answer yourself..) .Where have all the Buddhist temples gone? Does BJP address this? Foolish hindus have driven religion like Buddhist out of country , invited islam and even gave them a part of country…
    “Undo your evils and the world will be yours you hindus”

  7. ADVANI(L.K.) was (or is) undisputed leadrer of BJP. he is the backbone of
    BJP. but after JINNA’S episode, it becomes prove that ADVANI is only a
    building situated on the base of RSS. in INDIAN politics advani is known
    for his rigidity (particulaly on hinduism) but his recent statment about
    JINNA made him(ADVANI) an opportunist politician,by MEDIA.but few bur-ning questions are there–1) why media is not about investigetting JINNA’S different staments( on different event)? 2) if JINNA was not secular-then what was about neharu? 3) why CONGRESS or RSS is not ready for an open disscussion about JINNA? after ADVANI who is the unanimous leader of BJP?
    ADVANI’S pak visit (ACCORDING TO MEDIA’S COCERN OVER THIS ISSUE)prove that ADVANI’S political status is bigger than SONIA GANDHI.
    BJP will convert in regional party(instead of national party) after advani.
    whatever ADVANI had delivered in pakistan(about JINNA) was ,a contradictory statement of against ADVANI’S political personality but it
    should be right for those indian polticians & persons who belive in the politics of ideals.(based on cast ,religion,statism & opportunism =division)

    conclusion:-100 MEIN SE—– PHIR BHI MERA BHARAT MAHAN


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