Gujarat Predictions

Two contradictory predictions about Gujarat:

  1. Modi will win comfortably, because he was never in trouble. It was media bias that made journalists see rebellions where there were mere rumblings.
  2. The exit polls are overestimating Modi’s votes for the same reason they underestimated Mayavati’s votes† – those who voted against him are less likely to say that they did.

Which is your pick?

3 thoughts on “Gujarat Predictions

  1. 1 – Reason being that Congress was too late in creating an opposing leader in Dinsha Patel, who is more like an import from the central cabinet than a powerful local leader. The urban/semi-urban middle class support for Modi is staggering.

  2. Modi will win, but with a smaller majority, maybe even requiring a defection or some coalition (is there a 3rd front in Gujarat?), leaving everyone wondering WTF? He’ll claim victory, as will Congress, and life will go on.

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