Opinion polls have a reputation for inaccuracy in India, but how inaccurate are they in reality? Has a meta-study been conducted on them? The reason I ask is that as I see it, there are two main steps where the polls can go wrong. Either they get the vote percentages wrong, or they make an [...]
Karan Thapar discusses former Chief Election Commisioner Lyngdoh’s solution to the problem of “hate speech”. Lyngdoh believes that hate speech is a consequence of the first past the post system which will often lead to candidates getting elected even with 20-30% of the vote. So, all a candidate has to do is to appeal to [...]
As you ponder over the results of the elections in the five states, it is time to rerun an old post from over a year back: Popular Will and Divine Will Essentially, I believe that the first fundamental lacuna of India’s democratic system is that a government’s performance at governance has nothing to do with its [...]
”…the impact of this [delimitation] commission on India’s politics will be at least as far reaching as that of the Mandal commission.” Now that we have seen the impact of the delimitation and increased representation for urban areas in the Karnataka election results, there will be increased talk of this phenomenon, but I just want [...]
About the elections in Karnataka, Neel asks: “Once again. So whats new? Nothing much.” Ah, but there is something new this time. Over 30 years back, a constitutional amendment had frozen the map of India’s parliamentary and legislative constituencies to reflect the India of 1971. The moratorium has now ended, and the picture has moved forward [...]
Two contradictory predictions about Gujarat: Modi will win comfortably, because he was never in trouble. It was media bias that made journalists see rebellions where there were mere rumblings. The exit polls are overestimating Modi’s votes for the same reason they underestimated Mayavati’s votes – those who voted against him are less likely to say [...]
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