Dilip D’ Souza’s run of bad luck with his home appliances continues. I would like to request his mysterious emailers not to remind him of the concept of survivorship bias at such sensitive times. In any case don’t use such ungrammatical language when doing so.
Year: 2009
The Turning Point?
Last May I had written:
So, a weak Congress with allies will do quite well for some time. In a First Past the Post electoral system, the parties in the first and second place tend to look stronger than they are, because like Vali in the Ramayana, they will gain strength from their opponents.
This analogy is unfortunately inaccurate. Vali gained his strength from the strength of his opponents. In a FPTP system, the second strongest party gains strength from the weakness of the stronger party. Your organization could be in a complete mess, but as long as you are the main alternative to the stronger party, the ruling party’s missteps and the anti-incumbency factor will cause you to gain strength.
My point, though is still valid. I believe that the Congress is in an irreversible decline. If ever it happens that the third front gains enough to form a government on its own, then the extinction will be quite rapid. The BJP is also in a decline, but I am not sure if it is irreversible.
An Idea
Your vote should be weighted by your actuarial life expectancy. So, if you are a 25 year old person and your current life expectancy is 50 (more) years, then your vote should be multiplied by 50. If you are 65 years old and your life expectancy is only 20 more years, your vote will carry that much less weight.
Minors too should have weighted votes, to be exercised by one of their parents till the minor turns 18.
Election Predictions
I won’t make any, because I think that it is impossible to predict elections in India, but I think that Mayawati becoming the Prime Minister is the best case scenario. With our fiscal condition being what it is, in another year or so, we will have a Seldon crisis that will close off all options except the one that will lead to Narendra Modi as Prime Minister.
Pragati Alert
I have written the opening editorial for the March 2009 issue of Pragati. It should be out any time now. This is how it starts:
A visitor from the 17th century would be rather surprised to learn that the United States of America of 2009 is in distress. He would of course be no stranger to troubled times, but in his time, troubles came in the form of famines, diseases, strife and taxes. This blight called “recession” that has struck the United States would seem strange to him. Factories that were at full steam two years back are now idle, though their productive capacity is undiminished. Healthy men and women who were working in those factories now sit at home. Goods lie in warehouses even while vehicles to transport them in and roads to carry them on remain intact. Further inquiry by our visitor would reveal that the cause of the United States’ trouble is a breakdown in the system by which it co-ordinates demand and supply, present and future consumption, and risk and reward. The visitor would not be prepared for the scale and sophistication of the system that has now suffered a setback, but he would be no stranger to the idea of markets. Markets and traders have existed for as long as humankind has, and so have attacks against them.
Read the rest when you get the issue in your mailbox
Revisiting the Cause of Unhappiness
It is over 2 years since I wrote my seminal post “The Cause of Unhappiness”. It is clear now that I had underestimated human ingenuity. Even with a force as powerful as nuclear weapons standing between humanity and periodic societal destruction, we have still managed, quite creditably, to bring ourselves to the verge of a cataclysm. On that note, read point 13 of this list, which echoes my point.
The Pursuit of Beautiful Bengali Women
Dr Acharya Sumuchidonanda Pandey has made a valuable contribution to the debate on the migration cycle of beautiful Bengali women. I would like to learn more about whether there is a causal cycle here. Does the exit of the deshikas lead to the return of rajalakshmi, rajaviveka and rajabuddhi? Also, is Dr Pandey sure that there is not an error in Snehananda Bhattacharya’s reading of the Shilabuddhi Sutra, which has led him to invert the order in which rajalakshmi and rajaviveka go out and reenter? Further research on this vital topic is needed.
HDFC Dogbertism
HDFC Bank has this facility to create a certain type of Fixed Deposit that protects you against your cheques being dishonoured. If you have this type of FD, funds will automatically be “swept-in” into the savings account from the FD whenever needed. The balance of the FD will continue to earn the original rate of interest, while the amount that was swept in will be treated as if it was in a savings account. In ICICI Bank, there is a facility where if you have excess money in your savings account, it will be automatically swept out and be made an FD. HDFC, however, makes it as difficult as possible to create this type of FD. You can create normal FDs through netbanking, but not ones with the sweep-in facility. For this, you have to visit the branch or call up their phone banking. Rather interesting way to “match” ICICI’s offering without increasing your cost of funds.
Hiding the Fiscal Deficit
It turns out that the UPA government, which presided over the boom phase of the business cycle has ended its term with an incredibly high fiscal deficit. It got away with its legal responsibility to keep the budget within limits by keeping them within limits on paper and simply spending more than it was allowed. Chidambaram’s response to those who pointed out that he had not actually provided funding for the NREGA was, in effect “Trust me. Do you think I am so stupid as to not provide funds for such an important scheme?” Now, we will enter the bust phase of the cycle burdened with a huge deficit. For some reason, I am reminded of the discussion I got into here.
The Key to Sagarika Ghose
Which is why the battle for freedom and the battle for progress must be a sensible and a rational one; it can’t be a trivial battle where we fling coloured underwear at maniacs. We must learn from the Nehruvians of the 40s and 50s who were incredibly westernised, but deeply rooted; many of whom were rich but lived modest tasteful lives. They drank, they smoked and they romanced, yet they were discreet and embodied a tradition of Indian elitism that was rooted in both excellence as well as tradition. C. Rajagopalachari was considered a scholar in three languages-Sanskrit, Tamil and English. Rukmini Devi Arundale may have been deeply influenced by the Theosophical Movement but dedicated her life to reviving Indian dance and music by founding the Kalakshetra academy. Sarojini Naidu’s favourite poet was Shelley but she took pride in the fact that she could speak Urdu, Telegu and Bengali. However westernized their minds, India’s nationalist elite could not be accused of living in a cocoon of extravagant privilege or having their pleasure spots guarded by armed commandos.
This is from the wonderful Sagarika Ghose. The key takeaway from the article is that if you want to drink, smoke or romance, you must be rich enough to maintain a public life that is separate from your private one. You must be able to “embody” Indianness, regardless of how Western your soul is. If you want to romance, you must be able to afford a discreet room in a 5-star hotel. If you are a middle class couple and all you can afford is a smooch in the public park, then a Western lifestyle is not for you. If you are a woman who wants to drink, you must be rich enough to move to South Bombay. You have no business doing so in a pub in Mangalore and destroying the rich cultural heritage of that place. India’s nationalist elite had westernized minds and they were, in fact living in a cocoon of extravagant privilege that enabled them to maintain two different lifestyles. But they could not be accused of it, because they embodied a tradition of Indian elitism that was rooted in both excellence as well as tradition.
Elsewhere in the article, Ghose explains that other people following her lifestyle would not amount to forward movement for India. I understand exactly what she is saying. Really, if the lower orders don’t set us a good example, what on earth is the use of them? My own roots are in Mangalore. If the people of Mangalore start living like me, I will not be able to put my son in touch with his roots, which is why we must all strongly oppose it when the women of Mangalore start drinking in pubs.
Imagining India
Imagining India is an ambitious book. It aims to take an inventory of India’s successes and failures, and set the agenda for its future direction. While the book is interesting and worth reading, I am afraid it falls well short of its ambition.
Nilekani has divided the “ideas” in the book into four sections – The first section is for ideas that have already “arrived”. The second comprises those that are “arriving”. The third involves areas where pitched battles are being fought in the war of ideas, and the in the fourth section, Nilekani tries to give notice of ideas that are far away, but are fast approaching.