Two contradictory predictions about Gujarat:
- Modi will win comfortably, because he was never in trouble. It was media bias that made journalists see rebellions where there were mere rumblings.
- The exit polls are overestimating Modi’s votes for the same reason they underestimated Mayavati’s votes – those who voted against him are less likely to say that they did.
Which is your pick?
1 – Reason being that Congress was too late in creating an opposing leader in Dinsha Patel, who is more like an import from the central cabinet than a powerful local leader. The urban/semi-urban middle class support for Modi is staggering.
Modi will win, but with a smaller majority, maybe even requiring a defection or some coalition (is there a 3rd front in Gujarat?), leaving everyone wondering WTF? He’ll claim victory, as will Congress, and life will go on.
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