The Turning Point?

Last May I had written:

So, a weak Congress with allies will do quite well for some time. In a First Past the Post electoral system, the parties in the first and second place tend to look stronger than they are, because like Vali in the Ramayana, they will gain strength from their opponents. 

This analogy is unfortunately inaccurate.  Vali gained his strength from the strength of his opponents. In a FPTP system, the second strongest party gains strength from the weakness of the stronger party. Your organization could be in a complete mess, but as long as you are the main alternative to the stronger party, the ruling party’s missteps and the anti-incumbency factor will cause you to gain strength.

My point, though is still valid. I believe that the Congress is in an irreversible decline.  If ever it happens that the third front gains enough to form a government on its own, then the extinction will be quite rapid. The BJP is also in a decline, but I am not sure if it is irreversible.

2 thoughts on “The Turning Point?

  1. I think, this essentially misses the point of Vaali.

    Vaali works because the Ramayana, in a skilled manner, reduced the conflicts involving him into duels. Thus thrusting the binary solution space was made to appear natural. The modern downside for a political party from merely the electoral system seems limited, once it reaches a threshold. Despite an FPTP system.

    The Congress party may be on a decline which may be irreversible in absolute terms, but the nature of politics now makes it seem as though it may not be a decline on relative terms (with a 1996 cut-off). Or that it may decline at a rate where the relative equilibrium will be achieved without it (that is, the function falls of a cliff exponentially to achieve extinction)

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